Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yaracuyanos FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
2/1/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 1Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC37%
×Draw27%
Atletico Venezuela36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuyanos FC
1.23
Atletico Venezuela
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 60 away

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC
0.94
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC
1.39
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw
64%
Yaracuyanos FC or Atletico Venezuela
73%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
63%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
71%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
35%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
34%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
51%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 0.94 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more
37%
level
27%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
36%

Yaracuyanos FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yaracuyanos FC vs Atletico Venezuela

Yaracuyanos FC and Atletico Venezuela drew 0-0 in Primera División on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza in San Felipe.