Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Venezuela vs Yaracuyanos FC — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
20:00
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
7/19/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 20Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atletico Venezuela45%
×Draw27%
Yaracuyanos FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.38
Yaracuyanos FC
1.01

Atletico Venezuela creates 37% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 36 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Yaracuyanos FC
0.78

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Yaracuyanos FC
1.47

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
72%
Atletico Venezuela or Yaracuyanos FC
73%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
55%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
22%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
16%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
64%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
27%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
62%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Yaracuyanos FC attack 0.78 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
45%
level
27%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
28%

Atletico Venezuela at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Venezuela host Yaracuyanos FC

July 19, 2020: Atletico Venezuela take on Yaracuyanos FC in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atletico Venezuela host Yaracuyanos FC at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.