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Yaracuy FC vs Margarita FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
2 – 0
Margarita FC
Margarita FC
3/14/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 6Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yaracuy FC47%
×Draw25%
Margarita FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.56
Margarita FC
1.15

Yaracuy FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Margarita FC
1.29

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Margarita FC
1.35

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Margarita FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Margarita FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
72%
Yaracuy FC or Margarita FC
75%
Draw or Margarita FC
53%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
24%
Margarita FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
79%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
46%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
21%
Margarita FC 1+ goals
68%
Margarita FC 2+ goals
32%
Margarita FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
62%
Margarita FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Margarita FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Margarita FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Margarita FC attack 1.29 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
47%
level
25%
Margarita FC scores more
28%

Yaracuy FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yaracuy FC vs Margarita FC

Yaracuy FC beat Margarita FC 2-0 in Segunda División on March 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).