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Margarita FC vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Margarita FC
Margarita FC
FT
2 – 5
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
8/18/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 6Ciudad Deportiva Nueva Esparta (Pampatar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Margarita FC41%
×Draw25%
Yaracuy FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Margarita FC
1.47
Yaracuy FC
1.29

Margarita FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Margarita FC
1.59
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Margarita FC
1.29
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Margarita FC+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Margarita FC ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Margarita FC or draw
67%
Margarita FC or Yaracuy FC
75%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
59%

Winning margin

Margarita FC wins by 2+
20%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Margarita FC 1+ goals
77%
Margarita FC 2+ goals
43%
Margarita FC 3+ goals
18%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
72%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
37%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Margarita FC (draw refunded)
55%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Margarita FC at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Margarita FC attack 1.59 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Margarita FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Margarita FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Yaracuy FC scores more
33%

Margarita FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Margarita FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Margarita FC vs Yaracuy FC

Yaracuy FC beat Margarita FC 5-2 in Segunda División on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Nueva Esparta (Pampatar).