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Yaracuy FC vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
1 – 0
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
10/13/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Yaracuy FC54%
×Draw26%
Libertador FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.55
Libertador FC
0.86

Yaracuy FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 45 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
79%
Yaracuy FC or Libertador FC
74%
Draw or Libertador FC
46%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
28%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
79%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
46%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
20%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
58%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
21%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
72%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.55

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
54%
level
26%
Libertador FC scores more
21%

Yaracuy FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yaracuy FC vs Libertador FC

Yaracuy FC beat Libertador FC 1-0 in Segunda División on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).