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Libertador FC vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
FT
1 – 2
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
5/12/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 10Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Libertador FC38%
×Draw27%
Yaracuy FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.32
Yaracuy FC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 47 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
65%
Libertador FC or Yaracuy FC
73%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
62%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
17%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
73%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
38%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
15%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
71%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
36%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
52%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Libertador FC scores more
38%
level
27%
Yaracuy FC scores more
35%

Libertador FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertador FC vs Yaracuy FC

Yaracuy FC beat Libertador FC 2-1 in Segunda División on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas).