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Yaracuy FC vs Lala FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
3 – 1
Lala FC
Lala FC
9/8/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yaracuy FC47%
×Draw26%
Lala FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.45
Lala FC
1.03

Yaracuy FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Lala FC
1.06

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Lala FC
1.12

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Lala FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Lala FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
73%
Yaracuy FC or Lala FC
74%
Draw or Lala FC
53%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
23%
Lala FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
77%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
42%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
18%
Lala FC 1+ goals
64%
Lala FC 2+ goals
28%
Lala FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
64%
Lala FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Lala FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Lala FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lala FC attack 1.06 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Lala FC scores more
27%

Yaracuy FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yaracuy FC vs Lala FC

Yaracuy FC beat Lala FC 3-1 in Segunda División on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).