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Lala FC vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Lala FC
Lala FC
FT
0 – 2
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
4/9/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 10CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lala FC35%
×Draw27%
Yaracuy FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lala FC
1.23
Yaracuy FC
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 47 away

creates per match

Lala FC
1.11
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Lala FC
1.28
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Lala FC+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lala FC ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lala FC or draw
62%
Lala FC or Yaracuy FC
73%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
65%

Winning margin

Lala FC wins by 2+
15%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lala FC 1+ goals
71%
Lala FC 2+ goals
35%
Lala FC 3+ goals
13%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
72%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
37%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lala FC (draw refunded)
48%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lala FC at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lala FC attack 1.11 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Lala FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lala FC scores more
35%
level
27%
Yaracuy FC scores more
38%

Yaracuy FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Lala FC 0–2 Yaracuy FC

Yaracuy FC beat Lala FC 2-0 in Segunda División on April 9, 2018.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).