Yaracuy FC 1–1 Fundacion AIFI: Result & Stats

Yaracuy FC

FT

1 – 1

Fundacion AIFI

11/10/2020

Segunda División · Championship Round - 2Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yaracuy FC55%

×Draw24%

Fundacion AIFI21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yaracuy FCExpected goals in this matchFundacion AIFI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.93

Yaracuy FC

1.68

Fundacion AIFI

0.93

Yaracuy FC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 66 away

1.77

creates per match

0.85

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Yaracuy FC

1.77

Fundacion AIFI

0.85

allows per match

Yaracuy FC

1.00

Fundacion AIFI

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Fundacion AIFI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw

79%

Yaracuy FC or Fundacion AIFI

76%

Draw or Fundacion AIFI

45%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+

30%

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals

81%

Yaracuy FC 2+ goals

50%

Yaracuy FC 3+ goals

24%

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals

61%

Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals

24%

Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)

73%

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more

55%

level

24%

Fundacion AIFI scores more

21%

Yaracuy FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff