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Fundacion AIFI vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
FT
1 – 1
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
11/23/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 7Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fundacion AIFI37%
×Draw28%
Yaracuy FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.20
Yaracuy FC
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 47 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
65%
Fundacion AIFI or Yaracuy FC
72%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
63%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
16%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
70%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
34%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
12%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
69%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
32%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
51%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
37%
level
28%
Yaracuy FC scores more
35%

Fundacion AIFI at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundacion AIFI 1–1 Yaracuy FC

Fundacion AIFI and Yaracuy FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara in Barquisimeto.