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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
1 – 0
Tryavna
Tryavna
9/6/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 5Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh71%
×Draw17%
Tryavna12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.46
Tryavna
0.91

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 170% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 39 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
88%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Tryavna
83%
Draw or Tryavna
29%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
48%
Tryavna wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
91%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
70%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
44%
Tryavna 1+ goals
60%
Tryavna 2+ goals
23%
Tryavna 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
85%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.46

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
71%
level
17%
Tryavna scores more
12%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Yantra Polski Trambesh 1–0 Tryavna

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Tryavna 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.