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Tryavna vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
FT
2 – 3
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
3/21/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 22Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tryavna36%
×Draw23%
Yantra Polski Trambesh41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
1.58
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
59%
Tryavna or Yantra Polski Trambesh
77%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
64%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
17%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
79%
Tryavna 2+ goals
47%
Tryavna 3+ goals
21%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
82%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
51%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
46%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.58

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tryavna scores more
36%
level
23%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
41%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tryavna vs Yantra Polski Trambesh

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Tryavna 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Angel Kanchev in Tryavna.