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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Sevlievo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sevlievo
Sevlievo
11/18/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh40%
×Draw25%
Sevlievo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.50
Sevlievo
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 94 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Sevlievo
1.62

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Sevlievo
0.99

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Sevlievo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Sevlievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
64%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Sevlievo
75%
Draw or Sevlievo
60%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
19%
Sevlievo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
78%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
44%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
19%
Sevlievo 1+ goals
76%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
41%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
53%
Sevlievo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Sevlievo away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Sevlievo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sevlievo attack 1.62 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
40%
level
25%
Sevlievo scores more
36%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Sevlievo

Yantra Polski Trambesh and Sevlievo drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.