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Sevlievo vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
1 – 0
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
3/4/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 17Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sevlievo64%
×Draw19%
Yantra Polski Trambesh17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
2.27
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.07

Sevlievo creates 112% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 99 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
83%
Sevlievo or Yantra Polski Trambesh
81%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
36%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
41%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
90%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
66%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
39%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
66%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
29%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
79%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.27

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sevlievo scores more
64%
level
19%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
17%

Sevlievo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Sevlievo 1–0 Yantra Polski Trambesh

Sevlievo beat Yantra Polski Trambesh 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sevlievo.