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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Peshtera Galata — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
4 – 0
Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
5/9/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 30Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh74%
×Draw15%
Peshtera Galata11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.67
Peshtera Galata
0.94

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 184% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 29 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Peshtera Galata
0.69

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Peshtera Galata
3.34

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Peshtera Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
89%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Peshtera Galata
85%
Draw or Peshtera Galata
26%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
52%
Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
93%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
74%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
49%
Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
61%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
24%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
87%
Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.67

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
74%
level
15%
Peshtera Galata scores more
11%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Yantra Polski Trambesh 4–0 Peshtera Galata

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Peshtera Galata 4-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.