Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peshtera Galata vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
FT
2 – 3
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
8/7/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 1Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata53%
×Draw22%
Yantra Polski Trambesh25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
2.02
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.34

Peshtera Galata creates 51% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 99 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
75%
Peshtera Galata or Yantra Polski Trambesh
78%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
47%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
31%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
87%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
60%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
33%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
74%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
39%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
68%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.02

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
53%
level
22%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
25%

Peshtera Galata at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peshtera Galata vs Yantra Polski Trambesh

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Peshtera Galata 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Peshtera Galata in Galata.