Yantra Polski Trambesh 3–2 Pavlikeni

Yantra Polski Trambesh

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Pavlikeni

2/24/2024

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 16Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh55%

×Draw22%

Pavlikeni23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra Polski TrambeshExpected goals in this matchPavlikeni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.21

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.96

Pavlikeni

1.21

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 62% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 104 away

2.01

creates per match

1.22

1.20

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh

2.01

Pavlikeni

1.22

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.20

Pavlikeni

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Pavlikeni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw

77%

Yantra Polski Trambesh or Pavlikeni

78%

Draw or Pavlikeni

45%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+

32%

Pavlikeni wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals

86%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals

58%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals

31%

Pavlikeni 1+ goals

70%

Pavlikeni 2+ goals

34%

Pavlikeni 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)

70%

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Pavlikeni away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Pavlikeni defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pavlikeni attack 1.22 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more

55%

level

22%

Pavlikeni scores more

23%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff