Pavlikeni 3–2 Yantra Polski Trambesh

Pavlikeni

FT

3 – 2

Yantra Polski Trambesh

5/7/2025

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 22Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Pavlikeni53%

×Draw22%

Yantra Polski Trambesh25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PavlikeniExpected goals in this matchYantra Polski Trambesh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.25

Pavlikeni

1.93

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.25

Pavlikeni creates 54% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 99 away

1.74

creates per match

1.40

1.09

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Pavlikeni

1.74

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.40

allows per match

Pavlikeni

1.09

Yantra Polski Trambesh

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw

75%

Pavlikeni or Yantra Polski Trambesh

78%

Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh

47%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+

31%

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals

85%

Pavlikeni 2+ goals

57%

Pavlikeni 3+ goals

30%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals

71%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals

36%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)

68%

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pavlikeni scores more

53%

level

22%

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more

25%

Pavlikeni at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff