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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Levski Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
0 – 0
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
8/9/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh30%
×Draw25%
Levski Lom46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.24
Levski Lom
1.60

Levski Lom creates 29% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Levski Lom
2.00

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Levski Lom
0.47

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
54%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Levski Lom
75%
Draw or Levski Lom
70%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
12%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
71%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
35%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
13%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
80%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
47%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
39%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Levski Lom defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.24

Levski Lom attack 2.00 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
30%
level
25%
Levski Lom scores more
46%

Levski Lom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Levski Lom

Yantra Polski Trambesh and Levski Lom drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.