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Levski Lom vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
2 – 1
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2/21/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 18Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Lom76%
×Draw15%
Yantra Polski Trambesh9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
2.59
Yantra Polski Trambesh
0.79

Levski Lom creates 228% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
3.06
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Levski Lom
0.18
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
91%
Levski Lom or Yantra Polski Trambesh
85%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
24%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
54%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
92%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
73%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
47%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
55%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
19%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
89%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.18 · 17 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 3.06 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.59

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Levski Lom defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Levski Lom scores more
76%
level
15%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
9%

Levski Lom at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Levski Lom 2–1 Yantra Polski Trambesh

Levski Lom beat Yantra Polski Trambesh 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.