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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Botev Lukovit — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
4 – 2
Botev Lukovit
Botev Lukovit
5/5/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 26Gradski Stadion (Polski Trambesh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh60%
×Draw22%
Botev Lukovit19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.97
Botev Lukovit
1.00

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 97% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Botev Lukovit
0.80

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Botev Lukovit
1.93

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Botev Lukovit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
81%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Botev Lukovit
78%
Draw or Botev Lukovit
40%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
36%
Botev Lukovit wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
86%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
58%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
31%
Botev Lukovit 1+ goals
63%
Botev Lukovit 2+ goals
26%
Botev Lukovit 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
76%
Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.97

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
60%
level
22%
Botev Lukovit scores more
19%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Botev Lukovit

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Botev Lukovit 4-2 in Third League - Northwest on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion (Polski Trambesh).