Botev Lukovit 0–1 Yantra Polski Trambesh

Botev Lukovit

FT

0 – 1

Yantra Polski Trambesh

10/14/2018

Third League - Northwest · Round 11Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Botev Lukovit57%

×Draw22%

Yantra Polski Trambesh21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev LukovitExpected goals in this matchYantra Polski Trambesh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.14

Botev Lukovit

2.00

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.14

Botev Lukovit creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

1.87

creates per match

1.40

0.87

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Botev Lukovit

1.87

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.40

allows per match

Botev Lukovit

0.87

Yantra Polski Trambesh

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Lukovit ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Botev Lukovit or draw

79%

Botev Lukovit or Yantra Polski Trambesh

78%

Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh

43%

Winning margin

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

34%

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

86%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

59%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

32%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals

68%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals

32%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

73%

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Lukovit at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Lukovit attack 1.87 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.00

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Botev Lukovit defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Botev Lukovit scores more

57%

level

22%

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more

21%

Botev Lukovit at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Botev Lukovit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff