Yantra Gabrovo 1–1 Vihar Slavyanovo: Result & Stats

Yantra Gabrovo

FT

1 – 1

Vihar Slavyanovo

11/11/2018

Third League - Northwest · Round 15Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Gabrovo63%

×Draw19%

Vihar Slavyanovo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra GabrovoExpected goals in this matchVihar Slavyanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.10

Yantra Gabrovo

2.27

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.10

Yantra Gabrovo creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

3.40

creates per match

1.33

0.87

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Yantra Gabrovo

3.40

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.33

allows per match

Yantra Gabrovo

0.87

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Gabrovo ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Yantra Gabrovo or draw

83%

Yantra Gabrovo or Vihar Slavyanovo

81%

Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo

37%

Winning margin

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

41%

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

90%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

66%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

39%

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

67%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

30%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

79%

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Gabrovo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Gabrovo attack 3.40 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.27

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

63%

level

19%

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

17%

Yantra Gabrovo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff