Vihar Slavyanovo 1–1 Yantra Gabrovo: Result & Stats

Vihar Slavyanovo

FT

1 – 1

Yantra Gabrovo

6/2/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 30Stadion Slavyanovo (Slavyanovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo37%

×Draw23%

Yantra Gabrovo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihar SlavyanovoExpected goals in this matchYantra Gabrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.69

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.60

Yantra Gabrovo

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

2.08

creates per match

2.60

0.77

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.08

Yantra Gabrovo

2.60

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

0.77

Yantra Gabrovo

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw

60%

Vihar Slavyanovo or Yantra Gabrovo

77%

Draw or Yantra Gabrovo

63%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

18%

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

80%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

47%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

22%

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

82%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

50%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

48%

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

37%

level

23%

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

40%

Yantra Gabrovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff