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Yantra Gabrovo vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
FT
3 – 0
Tryavna
Tryavna
10/11/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 10Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Gabrovo83%
×Draw11%
Tryavna6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Gabrovo
3.15
Tryavna
0.74

Yantra Gabrovo creates 326% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 39 away

creates per match

Yantra Gabrovo
3.40
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Yantra Gabrovo
0.87
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Gabrovo ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Yantra Gabrovo or draw
94%
Yantra Gabrovo or Tryavna
89%
Draw or Tryavna
17%

Winning margin

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
65%
Tryavna wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
96%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
81%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
59%
Tryavna 1+ goals
52%
Tryavna 2+ goals
17%
Tryavna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
94%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Gabrovo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Gabrovo attack 3.40 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 3.15

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Yantra Gabrovo scores more
83%
level
11%
Tryavna scores more
6%

Yantra Gabrovo at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yantra Gabrovo 3 – 0 Tryavna

Yantra Gabrovo beat Tryavna 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo).