Tryavna 1–5 Yantra Gabrovo: Result & Stats

Tryavna

FT

1 – 5

Yantra Gabrovo

4/26/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 25Stadion Angel Kanchev (Tryavna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tryavna17%

×Draw19%

Yantra Gabrovo65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TryavnaExpected goals in this matchYantra Gabrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

2.33

Tryavna

1.09

Yantra Gabrovo

2.33

Yantra Gabrovo creates 114% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

1.05

creates per match

2.60

2.05

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Tryavna

1.05

Yantra Gabrovo

2.60

allows per match

Tryavna

2.05

Yantra Gabrovo

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw

35%

Tryavna or Yantra Gabrovo

81%

Draw or Yantra Gabrovo

83%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+

6%

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals

66%

Tryavna 2+ goals

30%

Tryavna 3+ goals

10%

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

90%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

67%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)

20%

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tryavna scores more

17%

level

19%

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

65%

Yantra Gabrovo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff