Yantra Gabrovo 0–1 Spartak Pleven: Result & Stats

Yantra Gabrovo

FT

0 – 1

Spartak Pleven

3/10/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 18Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Gabrovo51%

×Draw21%

Spartak Pleven27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra GabrovoExpected goals in this matchSpartak Pleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.48

Yantra Gabrovo

2.08

Spartak Pleven

1.48

Yantra Gabrovo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 48 away

3.40

creates per match

2.08

0.87

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Yantra Gabrovo

3.40

Spartak Pleven

2.08

allows per match

Yantra Gabrovo

0.87

Spartak Pleven

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Gabrovo ↓

Spartak Pleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Yantra Gabrovo or draw

73%

Yantra Gabrovo or Spartak Pleven

79%

Draw or Spartak Pleven

49%

Winning margin

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

30%

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

87%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

61%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

34%

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

77%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

43%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

65%

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Gabrovo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Gabrovo attack 3.40 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.08

Spartak Pleven attack 2.08 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

51%

level

21%

Spartak Pleven scores more

27%

Yantra Gabrovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff