Spartak Pleven 5–0 Yantra Gabrovo: Result & Stats

Spartak Pleven

FT

5 – 0

Yantra Gabrovo

8/26/2018

Third League - Northwest · Round 3Pleven Stadium (Pleven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spartak Pleven48%

×Draw22%

Yantra Gabrovo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlevenExpected goals in this matchYantra Gabrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.59

Spartak Pleven

2.02

Yantra Gabrovo

1.59

Spartak Pleven creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 15 away

2.92

creates per match

2.60

0.58

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Spartak Pleven

2.92

Yantra Gabrovo

2.60

allows per match

Spartak Pleven

0.58

Yantra Gabrovo

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw

69%

Spartak Pleven or Yantra Gabrovo

78%

Draw or Yantra Gabrovo

52%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

27%

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

87%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

60%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

33%

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

80%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

47%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

61%

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.58 · 48 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 2.92 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.02

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more

48%

level

22%

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

31%

Spartak Pleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff