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Yantra Gabrovo vs OFK Levski — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
FT
4 – 2
OFK Levski
OFK Levski
4/21/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 24Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Gabrovo77%
×Draw14%
OFK Levski9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Gabrovo
2.85
OFK Levski
0.89

Yantra Gabrovo creates 220% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Yantra Gabrovo
3.40
OFK Levski
0.90

allows per match

Yantra Gabrovo
0.87
OFK Levski
2.30

finishing

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par
OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Gabrovo ↓

OFK Levski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Yantra Gabrovo or draw
91%
Yantra Gabrovo or OFK Levski
86%
Draw or OFK Levski
23%

Winning margin

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
57%
OFK Levski wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
94%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
77%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
53%
OFK Levski 1+ goals
59%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
22%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
89%
OFK Levski (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Gabrovo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Gabrovo attack 3.40 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.85

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Yantra Gabrovo scores more
77%
level
14%
OFK Levski scores more
9%

Yantra Gabrovo at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yantra Gabrovo 4 – 2 OFK Levski

Yantra Gabrovo beat OFK Levski 4-2 in Third League - Northwest on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo).