Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFK Levski vs Yantra Gabrovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

OFK Levski
OFK Levski
FT
0 – 7
Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
10/7/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 9Gradski stadion (Levski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

OFK Levski25%
×Draw22%
Yantra Gabrovo53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Levski
1.28
Yantra Gabrovo
1.94

Yantra Gabrovo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 15 away

creates per match

OFK Levski
1.43
Yantra Gabrovo
2.60

allows per match

OFK Levski
1.27
Yantra Gabrovo
1.13

finishing

OFK Levski+0.00on par
Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Levski ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

OFK Levski or draw
47%
OFK Levski or Yantra Gabrovo
78%
Draw or Yantra Gabrovo
75%

Winning margin

OFK Levski wins by 2+
10%
Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

OFK Levski 1+ goals
72%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
37%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
14%
Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
86%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
58%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

OFK Levski (draw refunded)
32%
Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Levski at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Levski attack 1.43 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + OFK Levski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

OFK Levski scores more
25%
level
22%
Yantra Gabrovo scores more
53%

Yantra Gabrovo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: OFK Levski 0–7 Yantra Gabrovo

Yantra Gabrovo beat OFK Levski 7-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Levski).