Yantra Gabrovo 9–1 Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Yantra Gabrovo

FT

9 – 1

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

9/2/2018

Third League - Northwest · Round 4Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Gabrovo78%

×Draw13%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra GabrovoExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Dryanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.91

0.88

Yantra Gabrovo

2.91

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

0.88

Yantra Gabrovo creates 231% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

3.40

creates per match

0.88

0.87

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Yantra Gabrovo

3.40

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

0.88

allows per match

Yantra Gabrovo

0.87

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Gabrovo ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Yantra Gabrovo or draw

91%

Yantra Gabrovo or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

87%

Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

22%

Winning margin

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

58%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

94%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

78%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

54%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals

59%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals

22%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

90%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Gabrovo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Gabrovo attack 3.40 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.91

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

78%

level

13%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more

9%

Yantra Gabrovo at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff