Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1–2 Yantra Gabrovo

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

FT

1 – 2

Yantra Gabrovo

3/17/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 19Stadion Lokomotiv (Dryanovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo24%

×Draw21%

Yantra Gabrovo54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv DryanovoExpected goals in this matchYantra Gabrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.04

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.30

Yantra Gabrovo

2.04

Yantra Gabrovo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

1.48

creates per match

2.60

1.48

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.48

Yantra Gabrovo

2.60

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.48

Yantra Gabrovo

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw

46%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Yantra Gabrovo

79%

Draw or Yantra Gabrovo

76%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+

10%

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals

73%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals

37%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals

14%

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

87%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

60%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)

31%

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more

24%

level

21%

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

54%

Yantra Gabrovo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff