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Yantra Gabrovo vs Kom Berkovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
FT
2 – 0
Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
3/13/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 16Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Gabrovo73%
×Draw16%
Kom Berkovitsa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Gabrovo
2.61
Kom Berkovitsa
0.93

Yantra Gabrovo creates 181% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Yantra Gabrovo
3.40
Kom Berkovitsa
0.98

allows per match

Yantra Gabrovo
0.87
Kom Berkovitsa
1.82

finishing

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par
Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Gabrovo ↓

Kom Berkovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Yantra Gabrovo or draw
89%
Yantra Gabrovo or Kom Berkovitsa
84%
Draw or Kom Berkovitsa
27%

Winning margin

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
51%
Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
93%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
73%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
47%
Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
61%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
24%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
87%
Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Gabrovo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Kom Berkovitsa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Gabrovo attack 3.40 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.61

Kom Berkovitsa attack 0.98 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Yantra Gabrovo scores more
73%
level
16%
Kom Berkovitsa scores more
11%

Yantra Gabrovo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra Gabrovo vs Kom Berkovitsa

Yantra Gabrovo beat Kom Berkovitsa 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo).