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Kom Berkovitsa vs Yantra Gabrovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
FT
2 – 1
Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
8/12/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 1Stadion Mramor (Berkovitsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kom Berkovitsa35%
×Draw23%
Yantra Gabrovo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom Berkovitsa
1.60
Yantra Gabrovo
1.77

Yantra Gabrovo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kom Berkovitsa
2.07
Yantra Gabrovo
2.60

allows per match

Kom Berkovitsa
0.95
Yantra Gabrovo
1.13

finishing

Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par
Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom Berkovitsa ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kom Berkovitsa or draw
58%
Kom Berkovitsa or Yantra Gabrovo
77%
Draw or Yantra Gabrovo
65%

Winning margin

Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
17%
Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
80%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
47%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
22%
Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
83%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
53%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
45%
Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom Berkovitsa at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom Berkovitsa attack 2.07 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kom Berkovitsa scores more
35%
level
23%
Yantra Gabrovo scores more
42%

Yantra Gabrovo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kom Berkovitsa vs Yantra Gabrovo

Kom Berkovitsa beat Yantra Gabrovo 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mramor (Berkovitsa).