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Yantra Gabrovo vs Bdin — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
FT
6 – 2
Bdin
Bdin
5/24/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 29Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Gabrovo69%
×Draw16%
Bdin14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Gabrovo
2.71
Bdin
1.17

Yantra Gabrovo creates 132% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

Yantra Gabrovo
3.40
Bdin
1.47

allows per match

Yantra Gabrovo
0.87
Bdin
2.03

finishing

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par
Bdin+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Gabrovo ↓

Bdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Yantra Gabrovo or draw
86%
Yantra Gabrovo or Bdin
84%
Draw or Bdin
31%

Winning margin

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
48%
Bdin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
93%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
75%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
50%
Bdin 1+ goals
69%
Bdin 2+ goals
33%
Bdin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
83%
Bdin (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Gabrovo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Bdin away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Gabrovo attack 3.40 + Bdin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.71

Bdin attack 1.47 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Yantra Gabrovo scores more
69%
level
16%
Bdin scores more
14%

Yantra Gabrovo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra Gabrovo vs Bdin

Yantra Gabrovo beat Bdin 6-2 in Third League - Northwest on May 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo).