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Bdin vs Yantra Gabrovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Bdin
Bdin
FT
1 – 2
Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
11/4/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 14Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Vidin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bdin38%
×Draw22%
Yantra Gabrovo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bdin
1.73
Yantra Gabrovo
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bdin
2.33
Yantra Gabrovo
2.60

allows per match

Bdin
0.96
Yantra Gabrovo
1.13

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par
Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bdin or draw
60%
Bdin or Yantra Gabrovo
78%
Draw or Yantra Gabrovo
62%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+
19%
Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals
82%
Bdin 2+ goals
52%
Bdin 3+ goals
25%
Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
83%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
53%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)
49%
Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 92 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 2.33 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Bdin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bdin scores more
38%
level
22%
Yantra Gabrovo scores more
40%

Yantra Gabrovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Bdin 1–2 Yantra Gabrovo

Yantra Gabrovo beat Bdin 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Vidin).