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Yantra 2019 vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
CANC
00:00
Tryavna
Tryavna
4/12/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 19Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201986%
×Draw10%
Tryavna4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
2.88
Tryavna
0.45

Yantra 2019 creates 540% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 39 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
2.86
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Yantra 2019
0.29
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
96%
Yantra 2019 or Tryavna
90%
Draw or Tryavna
14%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
67%
Tryavna wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
94%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
78%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
54%
Tryavna 1+ goals
36%
Tryavna 2+ goals
8%
Tryavna 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
96%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 2.86 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.88

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Yantra 2019 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
86%
level
10%
Tryavna scores more
4%

Yantra 2019 at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yantra 2019 face Tryavna (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Yantra 2019 hosting Tryavna. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yantra 2019 host Tryavna at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.