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Tryavna vs Yantra 2019 — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
FT
1 – 3
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
9/15/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 6Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tryavna17%
×Draw20%
Yantra 201962%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
1.02
Yantra 2019
2.11

Yantra 2019 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Yantra 2019
2.17

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Yantra 2019
1.00

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
38%
Tryavna or Yantra 2019
80%
Draw or Yantra 2019
83%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
6%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
64%
Tryavna 2+ goals
27%
Tryavna 3+ goals
8%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
88%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
62%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
22%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Yantra 2019 attack 2.17 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tryavna scores more
17%
level
20%
Yantra 2019 scores more
62%

Yantra 2019 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Tryavna 1–3 Yantra 2019

Yantra 2019 beat Tryavna 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Angel Kanchev in Tryavna.