Yantra 2019 vs Sevlievo: Preview & Prediction

Yantra 2019

CANC

00:00

Sevlievo

4/26/2020

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 21Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201960%

×Draw22%

Sevlievo18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra 2019Expected goals in this matchSevlievo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.96

Yantra 2019

1.92

Sevlievo

0.96

Yantra 2019 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 94 away

2.86

creates per match

1.62

0.29

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Yantra 2019

2.86

Sevlievo

1.62

allows per match

Yantra 2019

0.29

Sevlievo

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Sevlievo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Sevlievo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw

82%

Yantra 2019 or Sevlievo

78%

Draw or Sevlievo

40%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

35%

Sevlievo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

85%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

57%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

30%

Sevlievo 1+ goals

62%

Sevlievo 2+ goals

25%

Sevlievo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

76%

Sevlievo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Sevlievo away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 2.86 + Sevlievo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sevlievo attack 1.62 + Yantra 2019 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more

60%

level

22%

Sevlievo scores more

18%

Yantra 2019 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yantra 2019 face Sevlievo (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Yantra 2019 hosting Sevlievo. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yantra 2019 host Sevlievo at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Yantra 2019 vs Sevlievo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Yantra 2019 face Sevlievo (Third League - Northwest)