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Sevlievo vs Yantra 2019 — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
1 – 2
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
9/29/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 8Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sevlievo44%
×Draw23%
Yantra 201933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
1.71
Yantra 2019
1.46

Sevlievo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Yantra 2019
2.17

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Yantra 2019
1.00

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
67%
Sevlievo or Yantra 2019
77%
Draw or Yantra 2019
56%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
23%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
82%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
51%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
24%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
77%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
43%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
57%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Yantra 2019 attack 2.17 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sevlievo scores more
44%
level
23%
Yantra 2019 scores more
33%

Sevlievo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Sevlievo 1–2 Yantra 2019

Yantra 2019 beat Sevlievo 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sevlievo.