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Yantra 2019 vs Pavlikeni — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
FT
0 – 1
Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
10/6/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 9Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201973%
×Draw17%
Pavlikeni10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
2.38
Pavlikeni
0.76

Yantra 2019 creates 213% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 104 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
2.86
Pavlikeni
1.22

allows per match

Yantra 2019
0.29
Pavlikeni
1.91

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Pavlikeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
90%
Yantra 2019 or Pavlikeni
83%
Draw or Pavlikeni
27%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
50%
Pavlikeni wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
91%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
68%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
42%
Pavlikeni 1+ goals
53%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
18%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
88%
Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Pavlikeni away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 2.86 + Pavlikeni defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.38

Pavlikeni attack 1.22 + Yantra 2019 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
73%
level
17%
Pavlikeni scores more
10%

Yantra 2019 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra 2019 vs Pavlikeni

Pavlikeni beat Yantra 2019 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Gabrovo.