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Pavlikeni vs Yantra 2019 — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
CANC
00:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
5/3/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 22Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pavlikeni32%
×Draw24%
Yantra 201944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
1.37
Yantra 2019
1.63

Yantra 2019 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Yantra 2019
2.17

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Yantra 2019
1.00

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
56%
Pavlikeni or Yantra 2019
76%
Draw or Yantra 2019
68%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
14%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
75%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
40%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
16%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
80%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
48%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
43%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

Yantra 2019 attack 2.17 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
32%
level
24%
Yantra 2019 scores more
44%

Yantra 2019 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pavlikeni host Yantra 2019

May 3, 2020: Pavlikeni take on Yantra 2019 in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pavlikeni host Yantra 2019 at Stadion Gancho Panov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.