Yantra 2019 1–0 Ludogorets II: Result & Stats

Yantra 2019

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ludogorets II

9/20/2025

Second League · Round 9Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Yantra 201946%

×Draw27%

Ludogorets II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra 2019Expected goals in this matchLudogorets II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.97

Yantra 2019

1.36

Ludogorets II

0.97

Yantra 2019 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 130 away

1.32

creates per match

0.92

1.01

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Yantra 2019

1.32

Ludogorets II

0.92

allows per match

Yantra 2019

1.01

Ludogorets II

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Ludogorets II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw

73%

Yantra 2019 or Ludogorets II

73%

Draw or Ludogorets II

54%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

22%

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

74%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

39%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

16%

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

62%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

25%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

63%

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 1.32 + Ludogorets II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ludogorets II attack 0.92 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more

46%

level

27%

Ludogorets II scores more

27%

Yantra 2019 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff