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Yantra 2019 vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
FT
1 – 0
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
10/20/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 11Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201981%
×Draw13%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
2.64
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.58

Yantra 2019 creates 355% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 81 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
2.86
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Yantra 2019
0.29
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
94%
Yantra 2019 or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
87%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
19%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
59%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
93%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
74%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
48%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
44%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
12%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
93%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 2.86 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.64

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Yantra 2019 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
81%
level
13%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
6%

Yantra 2019 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Yantra 2019 1–0 Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Yantra 2019 beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Gabrovo.