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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Yantra 2019 — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
CANC
15:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
5/17/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 24Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo26%
×Draw23%
Yantra 201951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.24
Yantra 2019
1.82

Yantra 2019 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Yantra 2019
2.17

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Yantra 2019
1.00

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
49%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Yantra 2019
77%
Draw or Yantra 2019
74%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
11%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
35%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
13%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
84%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
54%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
34%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Yantra 2019 attack 2.17 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
26%
level
23%
Yantra 2019 scores more
51%

Yantra 2019 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv Dryanovo face Yantra 2019 (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Lokomotiv Dryanovo hosting Yantra 2019. Match starts May 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo host Yantra 2019 at Stadion Lokomotiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.