Yantra 2019 1–0 Kariana Erden: Result & Stats

Yantra 2019

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kariana Erden

P. Kazakov 39'

8/8/2020

Second League · Round 1Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yantra 201944%

×Draw27%

Kariana Erden29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra 2019Expected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.05

Yantra 2019

1.36

Kariana Erden

1.05

Yantra 2019 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 32 away

1.32

creates per match

1.09

1.01

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Yantra 2019

1.32

Kariana Erden

1.09

allows per match

Yantra 2019

1.01

Kariana Erden

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw

71%

Yantra 2019 or Kariana Erden

73%

Draw or Kariana Erden

56%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

21%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

74%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

39%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

16%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

65%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

28%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

60%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 1.32 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more

44%

level

27%

Kariana Erden scores more

29%

Yantra 2019 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

P. Pierov← E. Lichev

39'

P. Kazakov

46'

B. Damyanov← V. Tsekov

46'

Matheus← P. Pierov

63'

Justino← G. Tartov

64'

T. Ivanov← V. Misyak

81'

A. Stoimenov← H. Kozhuharov

81'

I. Ivanov← I. Pisarov

83'

G. Georgiev← V. Michev

89'

E. Kolev← P. Kozhuharov

Yantra

Kariana

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Atsarov

64'▲T. Ivanov←▼V. Misyak

81'▲A. Stoimenov←▼H. Kozhuharov

81'▲I. Ivanov←▼I. Pisarov

89'▲E. Kolev←▼P. Kozhuharov

Yantra 2019 substitutes

IvanovStoimenovIvanovKolevNikolovTodorovGeorgiev

Manager: V. Velikov

27'▲P. Pierov←▼E. Lichev

46'▲B. Damyanov←▼V. Tsekov

46'▲Matheus←▼P. Pierov

63'▲Justino←▼G. Tartov

83'▲G. Georgiev←▼V. Michev

Kariana Erden substitutes

PierovDamyanovMatheusJustinoGeorgievIlievVeskov