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Kariana Erden vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
CANC
16:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
2/13/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kariana Erden48%
×Draw27%
Yantra 201925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.41
Yantra 2019
0.94

Kariana Erden creates 50% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 100 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
75%
Kariana Erden or Yantra 2019
73%
Draw or Yantra 2019
52%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
23%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
76%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
41%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
17%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
61%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
24%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
66%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
48%
level
27%
Yantra 2019 scores more
25%

Kariana Erden at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kariana Erden host Yantra 2019

February 13, 2021: Kariana Erden take on Yantra 2019 in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.