Yantra 2019 1–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Yantra 2019

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

11/11/2023

Second League · Round 17Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Yantra 201945%

×Draw28%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra 2019Expected goals in this matchChernomorets 1919 Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.97

Yantra 2019

1.35

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.97

Yantra 2019 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 33 away

1.32

creates per match

0.94

1.01

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Yantra 2019

1.32

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.94

allows per match

Yantra 2019

1.01

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw

73%

Yantra 2019 or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

72%

Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

55%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

21%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

74%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

39%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

15%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

62%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

25%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

63%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 1.32 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more

45%

level

28%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

27%

Yantra 2019 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff