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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
8/2/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2efbet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas43%
×Draw29%
Yantra 201927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Yantra 2019
0.89

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 100 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.82
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
73%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Yantra 2019
71%
Draw or Yantra 2019
57%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
19%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
70%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
34%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
12%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
59%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
22%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
62%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.21 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
43%
level
29%
Yantra 2019 scores more
27%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Yantra 2019

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Yantra 2019 drew 1-1 in Second League on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at efbet Arena in Burgas.