Yantra 2019 4–0 Akademik Svishtov: Result & Stats

Yantra 2019

FT

4 – 0

Akademik Svishtov

9/22/2019

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 7Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201972%

×Draw18%

Akademik Svishtov11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra 2019Expected goals in this matchAkademik Svishtov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.74

Yantra 2019

2.27

Akademik Svishtov

0.74

Yantra 2019 creates 207% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 104 away

2.86

creates per match

1.19

0.29

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Yantra 2019

2.86

Akademik Svishtov

1.19

allows per match

Yantra 2019

0.29

Akademik Svishtov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Akademik Svishtov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw

89%

Yantra 2019 or Akademik Svishtov

82%

Draw or Akademik Svishtov

28%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

48%

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

90%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

66%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

39%

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals

52%

Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals

17%

Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

87%

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 2.86 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.27

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Yantra 2019 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more

72%

level

18%

Akademik Svishtov scores more

11%

Yantra 2019 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff